首页 > 未分类 > It’s a bailout day, again

It’s a bailout day, again


昨天Mars在MSN说:来考考你的预测能力,如果700bn的救市计划(大家顺便来学个新名词,叫“TARP”,即“Troubled Assets Rescue Plan”)通过了,对市场会有什么影响。我说我觉得通过是肯定的,但是通过了市场不一定会涨,反而可能会跌,因为一方面Dow指周一跌下去的700点后面已经涨回来了不少,说明市场普遍预计TARP会通过,对这个信息已经消化的差不多了——倒不是说新的计划跟原先的有什么大变化,FDIC那个保险金限额的提高其实根本无关全局,之所以有34位众议员今天转投赞成票(上一次是205票反对,这一次是171票),恐怕还是因为被市场前两天的反应吓坏了——要是Dow指再跌700点,LIBOR再涨400bp,墙街的banker们不晓得会不会冲到华盛顿占领国会山或者直接在NYC宣布独立算了。。。另一方面,现在的市场处于极度恐慌,大家对任何问题都非常敏感,所以TARP计划一旦尘埃落定,大家的注意力马上就会转移到下一个问题——美国会不会陷入衰退?FED也许在处理这个问题上信心更强一些,毕竟降息不需要国会投票,Bernanke说降就可以降,但是上次FED就忍住没降,说明这个决定还不是那么好做,所以今天Dow指最后收了根阴线,情理之中。

也许今天的投票真的能够挽救墙街和美国经济,也许麻烦才刚刚开始,德国财长Steinbrück前天接受WSJ采访时说:我不知道任何一个可以告诉我四周以后情况会怎样的经济学家。所以我也不多废话,摘录一些我觉得有价值的(比如谢国忠的)和有意思的(比如Greenspan的)声音:

 

“The bailout plan won’t rescue the economy. The US government hopes that the bailout will allow banks to lend again. But, to whom? The US households borrowed in the past with appreciating home value as collateral. The consumer credit is already slowing sharply (2.1% in July vs. 5.6% in 2007). The consumer credit risk is too high when unemployment is rising so fast…As the global economy is weak, exports won’t help like before. Whatever angle we look at this, it seems the US economy is heading for unprecedented contraction…At the same time, energy price will remain high, and labor productivity sluggish. The bout of rapid labor productivity growth due to global trade boom is winding down. Hence, sluggish global economy won’t decrease inflationary pressure like before…Stagflation is here to stay. I remain bullish on energy and gold, bearish on pretty much anything else.

Andy Xie

 

"The sharp deterioration in both financial conditions and the economic data suggest the U.S. recession will be significantly deeper than we thought earlier."

A Report from Goldman Sachs

 

"In my adult lifetime, I don’t think I’ve ever seen people as fearful economically as they are now…So this really is an economic Pearl Harbor.  That sounds melodramatic, but I’ve never used that phrase before.  And this really is one…The recession is going to get worse. I don’t want to hold out false hopes that by some magic bullet that things will turn around in a couple months."

Warren Buffett, an interview with Charlie Rose on PBS

 

 

The decline of real (inflation-adjusted) long-term interest rates that has occurred in the past two decades has been associated with rising price-to-earnings ratios for stocks, real estate, and in fact all income-earning assets. The market value of assets worldwide between 1985 and 2006 as a consequence rose at a pace faster than that of nominal world GDP (the 2001-2002 period was the notable exception). This created a major increase in world liquidity. Stock and bond prices, homes, commercial real estate, paintings, and most everything else joined in the boom. Homeowners in many developed nations were able to dip into their growing home equity to finance purchases beyond what their incomes could financeMarket capitalism, the engine that runs most of the world economy, seems to be doing its job well.

Alan Greenspan, "The Age of Turbulence"

 

P.S.

1. HBS最近出了一篇working paper,讨论一种新的“测量及管理金融风险和金融系统稳定性的框架”(Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability),其中提出的方法被称之为“Contingent Claims Analysis”,最近要写论文的童鞋也许可以关注一下,这篇paper的三个作者其中之一是大名鼎鼎的Robert Merton,期权定价模型的奠基人,LTCM的Partner。文章可以在这里直接下载。

2. 关注Wells Fargo跟Citi抢Wochovia的童鞋,我觉得WSJ的这段评论最精彩:Citigroup and Wells Fargo both took a look at Wachovia’s financials, and came to radically different conclusions. Citigroup estimated $312 billion in toxic assets, of which it limited its exposure to $42 billion in losses. Wells Fargo, on the other hand, expects only $74 billion in toxic assets that may lead to losses. Why didn’t Wells Fargo believe there was a $312 billion pool of toxic assets? If nothing else, the world needs to know why two reasonable minds can disagree so widely on writedowns and losses and the extent of Wachovia’s toxic assets.

3. 在Mankiw的blog上看到一个Jon Stewart的视频: Awkward Loan Interview。实在是太搞笑了。。。

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  1. Qianrong
    2008年10月4日 @ 3:08 上午

    这时候就业真是赶上大时代了。。

  2. Star
    2008年10月4日 @ 7:46 上午

    恭喜你答对了……还真是跌了。我预测中国股市吧,周一震荡下行……

  3. Whitedeep
    2008年10月4日 @ 8:27 上午

    不是早就有人总结过,利好消息的兑现就是利空~

  4. du
    2008年10月11日 @ 12:21 下午

    Hey, your blog is well written ! let me take a close look after typing in this comment

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